With worldwide transport activity set to double and emissions set to rise further, a global summit of transport leaders met on 17 May to address transport’s CO2 emissions following COVID-19.
According to the latest projections of the International Transport Forum’s ITF Transport Outlook 2021, presented at the global summit of transport ministers, global transport activity will more than double by 2050 and traffic emissions will rise by 16% compared to 2015 – even if existing commitments to decarbonise transport are fully implemented. In addition any currently expected emissions reductions will be more than offset by the increased demand for transport.
However, transport CO2 emissions can be cut by almost 70% over the 2015-2050 period if the right policies are put in place. A reduction of this magnitude will bring the goal of the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 1.5˚C into reach.
The report found that based on 2015 figures, today urban mobility generates 40% of all CO2 emissions from the movement of people, non-urban transport is responsible for the remaining 60%. It also found that if current policies remain in place between now and 2050 passenger transport activity will increase 2.3-fold (measured in passenger-km), while freight transport activity will grow 2.6-fold (measured in tonne-km). Under ambitious policies that also lock in CO2 reduction windfalls from COVID-19, the report also states that cities could cut CO2 emissions from urban mobility by as much as 80% to 2050; regional passenger transport (by air, rail and bus) could more than halve its CO2 emissions; and freight emissions could be 72% less.
The report outlines six recommendations on how governments can set the world on a path towards sustainable mobility, achieve the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement and support the UN Sustainable Development goals. These include: Aligning COVID-19 recovery packages to revive the economy, combat climate change and strengthen equity; Implement more ambitious policies that will reverse the growth of transport CO2 emissions; Target different transport sectors with strategies that reflect their specific decarbonisation potential and challenges; Support innovation to accelerate the technological breatkthroughs needed to decarbonise transport; Shift the priority to improving accessibility; Intensify collaboration with non-transport sectors and between public and private actors.
“I am proud to present the 2021 edition of the ITF Transport Outlook,” said ITF Secretary General, Young Tae Kim. “It provides policy makers with insights from cutting-edge ITF research on the three major challenges of our time: the COVID-19 pandemic, climate change and inequality. It shows how they are linked, but also identifies actions that are critical to ensure an effective and equitable transition to sustainable mobility on an urban, regional and global level in the wake of the pandemic.”
