According to Airports Council International (ACI) World, the recent momentum created by the uplift of many health measures and relaxation of travel restrictions in many European countries and the Americas has boosted industry optimism. However the uneven recovery across different territories is now more exposed than ever with major aviation markets in Asia-Pacific lagging behind their western counterparts as they continue to be in part closed to international traffic.
The industry is also facing some significant headwinds including geopolitical conflicts, higher inflation, the risk of economic downturn, supply chain disruptions, labour shortages and potential new outbreaks. The overall recovery is expected to be mainly driven by the recovery of domestic passenger traffic but will be hampered by the recovery stagnation in Asia-Pacific and a slower recovery in global international travel (globally, domestic traffic accounted for 57% of total passenger traffic in 2019).
Despite the downside risks, the industry remains confident that the potential for a recovery to 2019 levels within two or three years is forseeable. Global passenger traffic is expected to improve significantly in 2022 reaching 77% of what it was in 2019, with traffic for 2022 forecast to total 7.1 billion. Good news considering in 2021 the COVID-19 outbreak removed 4.6 billion passengers compared to 2019, representing a loss of 50.3% of global passenger traffic and over the first two years of the pandemic passenger numbers were reduced at the world’s airports by 10.2 billion.
ACI is forecasting that by the second half of 2024 global international passenger traffic will be back at 2019 levels.
“Considering my recent trips and based on the latest data, there is no doubt that many travellers are eager to resume travelling – and the early summer volumes are a testament to it,” said ACI World Director General Luis Felipe de Oliveira.
“With the combination of ‘vacation deprivation’ and an upsurge in confidence in air travel provided by increased vaccination rates and safety measures, the relaxation of travel restrictions will help boost the propensity for air travel and fuel the industry’s recovery. With many countries taking steps towards the return to a certain normality, lifting almost all the health measures and travel restrictions, we expect a jump in air travel demand in the second half of 2022.”
