The International Air Transport Association (IATA), which has this week hosted its annual general meeting and world air transport summit in Istanbul, Turkey, expects overall renewable fuel production to reach an estimated capacity of at least 55 million tonnes by 2028.
According to IATA, sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) will comprise a portion of this growing output which is being achieved through new renewable fuel refineries and the expansion of existing facilities across a wide geographic footprint covering North America, Europe and Asia Pacific.
“The expected production increase is extremely encouraging,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General. “Seeing this, we need governments to act to ensure that SAF gets its fair production share. That means, in the first instance, production incentives, to support aviation’s energy transition. And we need continued approval for more diversification of methods and feedstocks available for SAF production.”
Walsh also noted that with these two measures in place, he was confident that the expected 2028 production levels will be aligned with IATA’s roadmaps to net zero carbon emissions by 2050 .”That is important as we are counting on SAF to provide about 62% of the carbon mitigation needed in 2050,” he said.
In 2022, SAF production tripled to some 300m litres and project announcements for potential SAF producers are rapidly growing. Earlier this year for example, aviation fuel giant, Air bp has announced plans to deliver five projects to increase SAF supply and materially grow biofuels production (focused on SAF) to around 100,000 barrels per day by 2030.
IATA counts more than 130 relevant renewable fuel projects announced by more than 85 producers across 30 countries. If renewable energy production reaches 55 million litres by 202 as estimated, the trajectory to 80 million tonnes by 2030 would be on track. If just 30% of that produced SAF, the industry could achieve 24 million tonnes of SAF production by 2030.
“Achieving the necessary SAF percentage output from these new and expanding facilities is not a give. But with governments the world-over agreeing at ICAO to a long-term aspirational goal of net zero by 2050, they now share accountability for aviation’s decarbonisation. That means establishing a policy framework to ensure that aviation gets the needed share of renewable energy production in SAF,” continued Walsh.
IATA also underlined that government support and investment, alongside continued passenger support is key to boosting SAF production at scale.
